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Abstract Warm-sector heavy rainfall in southern China refers to the heavy rainfall that occurs within a weakly forced synoptic environment under the influence of monsoonal airflows. It is usually located near the southern coast and is characterized by poor predictability and a close relationship with coastal terrain. This study investigates the impacts of coastal terrain on the initiation, organization, and heavy rainfall potential of MCSs in warm-sector heavy rainfall over southern China using quasi-idealized WRF simulations and terrain-modification experiments. Typical warm-sector heavy rainfall events were selected to produce composite environments that forced the simulations. MCSs in these events all initiated in the early morning and developed into quasi-linear convective systems along the coast with a prominent back-building process. When the small coastal terrain is removed, the maximum 12-h rainfall accumulation decreases by ∼46%. The convection initiation is advanced ∼2 h with the help of orographic lifting associated with flow interaction with the coastal hills in the control experiment. Moreover, the coastal terrain weakens near-surface winds and thus decreases the deep-layer vertical wind shear component perpendicular to the coast and increases the component parallel to the coast; the coastal terrain also concentrates the moisture and instability over the coastal region by weakening the boundary layer jet. These modifications lead to faster upscale growth of convection and eventually a well-organized MCS. The coastal terrain is beneficial for back-building convection and thus persistent rainfall by providing orographic lifting for new cells on the western end of the MCS, and by facilitating a stronger and more stagnant cold pool, which stimulates new cells near its rear edge. 

Abstract. This study examines the diurnal variation in precipitation over Hainan Island in the South China Sea using gauge observations from 1951 to 2012 and Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH) satellite estimates from 2006 to 2015, as well as numerical simulations. The simulations are the first to use climatological mean initial and lateral boundary conditions to study the dynamic and thermodynamic processes (and the impacts of land–sea breeze circulations) that control the rainfall distribution and climatology. Precipitation is most significant from April to October and exhibits a strong diurnal cycle resulting from land–sea breeze circulations. More than 60% of the total annual precipitation over the island is attributable to the diurnal cycle with a significant monthly variability. The CMORPH and gauge datasets agree well, except that the CMORPH data underestimate precipitation and have a 1h peak delay. The diurnal cycle of the rainfall and the related land–sea breeze circulations during May and June were well captured by convection-permitting numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which were initiated from a 10-year average ERA-Interim reanalysis. The simulations have a slight overestimation of rainfall amounts and a 1h delay in peak rainfall time. The diurnal cycle of precipitation is driven by the occurrence of moist convection around noontime owing to low-level convergence associated with the sea-breeze circulations. The precipitation intensifies rapidly thereafter and peaks in the afternoon with the collisions of sea-breeze fronts from different sides of the island. Cold pools of the convective storms contribute to the inland propagation of the sea breeze. Generally, precipitation dissipates quickly in the evening due to the cooling and stabilization of the lower troposphere and decrease of boundary layer moisture. Interestingly, the rather high island orography is not a dominant factor in the diurnal variation in precipitation over the island. 

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau is regarded as the Earth's Third Pole, which is the source region of several major rivers that impact more 20% the world population. This high‐altitude region is reported to have been undergoing much greater rate of weather changes under global warming, but the existing reanalysis products are inadequate for depicting the state of the atmosphere, particularly with regard to the amount of precipitation and its diurnal cycle. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system based on the limited‐area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was evaluated for use in developing a regional reanalysis over the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding regions. A 3‐month prototype reanalysis over the summer months (June−August) of 2015 using WRF‐EnKF at a 30‐km grid spacing to assimilate nonradiance observations from the Global Telecommunications System was developed and evaluated against independent sounding and satellite observations in comparison to the ERA‐Interim and fifth European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5) global reanalysis. Results showed that both the posterior analysis and the subsequent 6‐ to 12‐hr WRF forecasts of the prototype regional reanalysis compared favorably with independent sounding observations, satellite‐based precipitation versus those from ERA‐Interim and ERA5 during the same period. In particular, the prototype regional reanalysis had clear advantages over the global reanalyses of ERA‐Interim and ERA5 in the analysis accuracy of atmospheric humidity, as well as in the subsequent downscale‐simulated precipitation intensity, spatial distribution, diurnal evolution, and extreme occurrence.